[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 22:00:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152158 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152158Z - 152300Z

CHANCES OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK
PNHDLS...AND SWRN KS THROUGH THE EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHORTLY.

STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG NWRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS HAS AIDED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL OVER
THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NERN NM. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE/PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR. LARGE SURFACE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH DCAPE STRONGLY SUGGEST DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
SEVERE HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37960101 37720036 35280121 33900266 34200390 35150471
37000411 37060186 

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