[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jun 15 23:49:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152347 
NEZ000-COZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152347Z - 160045Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CO IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON SWRN EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS...DELINEATED BY WAVY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
OR WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF DEN TO W OF IML TO N OF LBF. 
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM NAM/RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN CO INTO
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH 16/06Z.

PRESENCE OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 06/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40370247 40850290 41720229 42360085 42339995 41969966
41379981 40530100 

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