[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jun 12 06:05:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120603 
KSZ000-OKZ000-120730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 120603Z - 120730Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NCNTRL OK
THROUGH 09Z.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RNFL WILL BE LIKELY...BUT A
CONVECTIVE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ROTATING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND
WILL BE ENHANCING THE LLJ THIS MORNING.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A WEAK H85 JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SLY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z.  NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION N
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF AROUND 35 KTS AND
MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BECOME
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  BUT...AS MORE STORMS
FORM...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK AND SERN KS
THROUGH 12Z...WHILE STRONGER STORMS FAVOR THE WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS ACROSS SCNTRL KS.

..RACY.. 06/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38369803 37839651 37429603 36949594 36699683 37169897
38039953 38459899 

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