[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Mon Jun 12 06:05:22 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 120604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120603
KSZ000-OKZ000-120730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 120603Z - 120730Z
TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NCNTRL OK
THROUGH 09Z. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RNFL WILL BE LIKELY...BUT A
CONVECTIVE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV ROTATING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND
WILL BE ENHANCING THE LLJ THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT A WEAK H85 JET WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SLY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z. NOSE OF THIS JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION N
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF AROUND 35 KTS AND
MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BECOME
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BUT...AS MORE STORMS
FORM...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT ESEWD INTO EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK AND SERN KS
THROUGH 12Z...WHILE STRONGER STORMS FAVOR THE WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS ACROSS SCNTRL KS.
..RACY.. 06/12/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
38369803 37839651 37429603 36949594 36699683 37169897
38039953 38459899
WWWW
More information about the Mcd
mailing list