[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 10 19:48:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101948 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...

VALID 101948Z - 102045Z

THROUGH 22Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

AS OF 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
TSTMS FROM NERN PA /20 NE OF FKL/ TO NEAR FDY IN NWRN OH.  THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLAND...ASHLAND AND
WAYNE COUNTIES IN OH WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 330/15 KTS.  RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP PLOTS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40
KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO.  RESULTING WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

INDEED...PERIODIC MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH STRONGER
STORMS OVER NERN OH INTO NWRN PA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXTRAPOLATION OF
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE INDICATES LEADING EDGE
WILL MOVE S OF WW 590 BY 2130-2200Z.  SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

40368316 40638262 40808176 40968091 41098044 40678026
40258036 40038163 39938273 39998307 

WWWW