[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 10 18:30:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101829 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 101829Z - 102100Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. A WW
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW REINFORCED
WARM FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. MEANWHILE...LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS CELLS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

FARTHER S...ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED WITH SCATTERED STORMS FORMING
WITHIN HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING MECHANISM IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WITH PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. CURRENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES
AND WEAK WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN.

..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

36719260 35779327 34899547 33499766 33359875 33479921
34109933 35849866 36939829 37779784 38059547 37969371
37689261 37079252 

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