[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Mon Jul 31 01:56:47 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 310158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310157
MNZ000-NDZ000-310400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL-NERN ND...PORTIONS NWRN MN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 310157Z - 310400Z
SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS REGION...FURTHER
ORGANIZING SVR THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
INITIALLY ELEVATED AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND
INTO MUCH MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED ACTIVITY NW BIS...AND OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN BIS-DVL...EACH N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR BIS...CLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS HARDING
COUNTY SD...WARM FRONT ENEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 N FAR. NWD DRIFT
IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH CINH APPEARS LARGE FOR SFC BASED PARCELS N OF
FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS DO REACH SFC BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS. STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY -- MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG -- IS
SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F. ONLY SLOW DIABATIC SFC
COOLING IS EXPECTED...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO
REACH SFC. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E. 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MOST AREAS -- INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH
DISCRETE TSTMS...AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
STRONGEST LLJ WILL REMAIN FARTHER E ACROSS NRN MN/LS REGION.
HOWEVER...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY
JUST N OF FRONT...WHERE NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENLARGE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPH.
..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
47589894 47370068 47150181 47450237 48450170 48990003
48959628 47689642
WWWW
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