[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 310630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310629 
MNZ000-310800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL/NERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310629Z - 310800Z

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NWRN MN
INTO THE FAR SRN PARTS OF NWRN ONTARIO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO PARTS OF N CENTRAL/NERN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WW
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO NRN MN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
CAPPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD
CONFINE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE MN BORDER COUNTIES OF
KOOCHICHING/NRN ST LOUIS/NRN LAKE AND COOK.  MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SUGGESTING
LIMITED OVERALL SWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND VERY LARGE CAPE INDICATES STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NRN MN WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

..WEISS.. 07/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

47849399 48109444 48689448 48569302 48249086 47998944
47558955 47439106 47709324 

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