[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 310158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310157 
MNZ000-NDZ000-310400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL-NERN ND...PORTIONS NWRN MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310157Z - 310400Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.  MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS REGION...FURTHER
ORGANIZING SVR THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

INITIALLY ELEVATED AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND
INTO MUCH MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED ACTIVITY NW BIS...AND OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN BIS-DVL...EACH N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.
 SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR BIS...CLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS HARDING
COUNTY SD...WARM FRONT ENEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 N FAR.  NWD DRIFT
IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH CINH APPEARS LARGE FOR SFC BASED PARCELS N OF
FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS DO REACH SFC BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS. STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY -- MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG -- IS
SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F. ONLY SLOW DIABATIC SFC
COOLING IS EXPECTED...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO
REACH SFC.  DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E. 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MOST AREAS -- INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH
DISCRETE TSTMS...AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE. 
STRONGEST LLJ WILL REMAIN FARTHER E ACROSS NRN MN/LS REGION. 
HOWEVER...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY
JUST N OF FRONT...WHERE NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENLARGE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPH.

..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

47589894 47370068 47150181 47450237 48450170 48990003
48959628 47689642 

WWWW