[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Wed Jul 26 12:51:26 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 261249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261248
LAZ000-TXZ000-261445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX...CNTRL/SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 261248Z - 261445Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
30+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW...ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 1 KM
AGL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT. MODELS SUGGEST THESE SURFACE WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID MORNING WITH
INCREASING SURFACE HEATING/MIXING. HOWEVER... FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS INLAND OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 70S...THIS
PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BY 15-18Z.
..KERR.. 07/26/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
29549442 30449430 31119388 31309286 31119208 30779169
30539101 30409050 29788980 28898921
WWWW
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