[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 261249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261248 
LAZ000-TXZ000-261445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX...CNTRL/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261248Z - 261445Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

30+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW...ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 1 KM
AGL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST.  SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT.  MODELS SUGGEST THESE SURFACE WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID MORNING WITH
INCREASING SURFACE HEATING/MIXING.  HOWEVER... FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS INLAND OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 70S...THIS
PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BY 15-18Z.

..KERR.. 07/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29549442 30449430 31119388 31309286 31119208 30779169
30539101 30409050 29788980 28898921 

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