[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 301529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301528 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301528Z - 301730Z

THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AL SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND MIDDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER GULF MOISTURE STILL S OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.  ABOVE THE CAPPED LAYER HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED AS
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
INTO THE SERN CONUS.

COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS CONVECTION. 
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WLY
WINDS -- AND THUS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...INCREASING FLOW
AT MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION.  

EXPECT STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN
AL TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR INCREASES.  LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
GENERAL LACK OF VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY REQUIRED BY MIDDAY.

..GOSS.. 01/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

31098824 31988731 32548601 32948458 31818377 31078404
29808528 30298610 30208802 30208838 

WWWW