[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 29 07:13:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 290713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290712 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290712Z - 290845Z

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
STORM INTENSIFICATION.

AS OF 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
FROM NWRN AL SWWD THROUGH SRN MS /NEAR PIB/ INTO S-CNTRL LA.  MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF
HOUR E OF THIS LINE OVER SERN LA WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 25 NW MSY.  AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
SBCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE IS THE STRONG WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE
SLIDELL VWP WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS/. 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT /PER SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES/ IS OCCURRING WELL TO
THE NE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.  A
SIMILAR TYPE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR SRN
MS INTO PERHAPS FAR SWRN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT
/CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PIB
SEWD TO W OF MOB/ CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29579153 30469087 31008977 30958886 30748815 29898808
29068982 29079117 

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