[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 28 18:52:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 281852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281852 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281852Z - 282115Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LOW-END
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TCU ALONG DRYLINE AND WITHIN
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING BEHIND THE DRYLINE FROM
SRN KS INTO N TX AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH NO CIN REMAINING. MUCAPE
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY VERY WEAK...BUT MAY INCREASE IN A VERY NARROW
ZONE E OF DRYLINE. WARM AND VEERED WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGESTS CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE
NEWD ABOVE STABLE LAYER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
WEAK...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING UPSTREAM
SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS.

..JEWELL.. 01/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

35529548 32479625 31969743 31899840 32149858 33039833
34179804 36849776 39009771 39149726 38869585 

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