[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281814 
LAZ000-TXZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281814Z - 282045Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE 
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

PRE-FRONTAL MCS WITH EMBEDDED LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX.  A STRONG 50+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN TX TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S INTO SERN TX AND WRN LA.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTING W OF A N-S ORIENTED
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. LEWP AND
BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR OF
AHEAD OF THE LINE. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN AN
OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.

..DIAL.. 01/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

29519629 30819531 31759413 31509291 30609255 29949307
29509453 28989549 

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