[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 282145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282144 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-282345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282144Z - 282345Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY
UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR
ORGANIZATION.

STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND 
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E
ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A
SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR
PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E
CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS.

..DIAL.. 01/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215 

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