[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 231819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231818 
MEZ000-NHZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME AND PARTS OF NH

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 231818Z - 232215Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
19-20Z OVER ERN/SRN NH...AND BY 21Z OVER SWRN ME. HEAVY SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 18-20Z...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA AROUND 22Z. 

STRONG WAA IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE BOSTON AND GRAY
ME VWP/S AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WERE
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF ERN NH
INTO SWRN ME. CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ENEWD MOTION OF THE STRONGEST WAA ALONG THE 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL TAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ENEWD ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF SRN ME THROUGH 20Z. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME
ENELY OR NELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO THE SURFACE LOW
RESIDING IN THE GULF OF ME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 

RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE WRN EDGE OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS WRN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BRINGS IT TO THE NH/ME BORDER BY AROUND 20Z...AND TO
THE ERN GULF OF ME/DOWNEAST ME BY 23Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE SUPPORT FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER WILL END AND SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY.

..CROSBIE/GRAMS.. 01/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

45196728 44857042 44307146 43467165 43187143 43137067
43827001 44496814 44746729 

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