[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jan 24 23:47:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 242348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242347 
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-250445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 242347Z - 250445Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/LAKE EFFECT...

LATEST WV/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTION/LIGHTNING OVER SW PA. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW NOW
OVER WRN PA WILL MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN
PARTICULAR...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVIER
SNOWS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS THE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SNOW. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
VEER TO WLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SFC-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. EARLIER REPORT
OF THUNDERSNOW AT PIT IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE
SYSTEM.

..TAYLOR.. 01/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

41597571 40067741 37808082 38328096 41137987 42717881
43137762 44257576 43967460 

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