[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 23 12:09:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231207 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY / NRN CT AND RI / SRN VT AND NH / SRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231207Z - 231800Z

MAXIMUM SNOW RATES OF 1.00-1.50 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
OVER FAR SWRN NEW ENGLAND.

SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ON NOSE OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION. W-E ORIENTED ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MD AREA. HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN HRLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10"
UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS. GIVEN
SOME CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SE AND WARMING ALOFT...PROFILES WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED
BY RUC AND NAM PTYPE ALGORITHMS.

..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

44026970 44057148 43077324 42687471 41717492 41597372
41977083 42887058 