[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 23 06:49:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230647 
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / NRN NJ / FAR SERN NY / SWRN
NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 230647Z - 231145Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA...WITH
MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN CT. SNOW OVER SERN
PA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
LAST FEW HOURS. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS BASED ON
THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN MOST PROBABLE TYPE IN
ZONE BOUNDED BY JST TO AOO TO FIG TO UNV. HRLY FREEZING RAINFALL
RATES AROUND 0.05" ARE ANTICIPATED SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT ICING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO RAIN AFTER
SUNRISE.

FARTHER NE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND RUC INDICATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA
AND NJ WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MDT TO HVY
SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
ZONE ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 12Z.

..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

41357350 41247434 41267473 41347544 41277662 41217723
40767777 40077816 39967877 40137897 40687893 41107907
41447864 41837694 42057493 42187376 42037288 41637267 