[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221937 
LAZ000-MSZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA INTO SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221937Z - 222130Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE
ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION STILL
APPEARS PRESENT.

HOWEVER...MODELS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH APPROACH
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL
WEAKEN CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING/
STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21Z...
ALONG LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS...SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST
OF BATON ROUGE LA THROUGH AREAS EAST NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB MS.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...AND AS SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
BECOMES REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE.

..KERR.. 01/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

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