[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 180122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180122 
NYZ000-PAZ000-180515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 180122Z - 180515Z

PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THROUGH 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BROAD WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS LEADING TO EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO PA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT/EPISODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
THIS EVENING. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE MELTING LAYER ABOVE
MAINTENENCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATER THIS
EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
INDUCE A SWITCH-OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN NY.

..GUYER.. 01/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44287588 44737465 44077362 42947348 42017406 41707431
41537481 41367563 41377630 41337756 41507795 41867812
42537792 42717774 42967729 43407630 43787601 

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