[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jan 18 08:13:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180813 
ORZ000-CAZ000-181415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE RANGE INTO
SRN ORE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 180813Z - 181415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE SRN ORE CASCADE RANGE. 
SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE AT
TIMES TO 2500 FEET IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ONSHORE WRN ORE AND NWRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET.  CONSIDERABLE OPEN CELL TYPE CLOUDS
ATTEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE N OF THE
CYCLONIC JET.  IN FACT...NLDN/OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/OFFSHORE.  

WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MID-MORNING...
WITH STRONG...MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND SRN ORE CASCADES. CIRA SATL BLENDED TPW STILL
SUGGESTS AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT.  

SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO 2500-3000 FEET...BUT
COULD DIP TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVY SNOW BURSTS.  HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND BE CENTERED MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY CA NWD INTO THE SRN ORE
CASCADES.

..RACY.. 01/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...EKA...

41402372 41972363 42292285 42512267 43032236 43442224
43392201 42902207 42202220 41392220 40922306 40972352 

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