[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jan 17 08:51:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170851 
MIZ000-171445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 170851Z - 171445Z

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LWR MI THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE ACROSS
CNTRL AND PARTS OF NCNTRL LWR MI WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR PSBL. SLEET PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
LWR MI.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI THIS
MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS
MN.  LARGE WARM CONVEYOR WAS TRANSPORTING LOW/MID-LEVEL MSTR NWD
INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
LK MI AND SRN LWR MI SINCE 06Z.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INCREASING/MOVE NWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

SFC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. BUT...THE COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN
RAPIDLY AS STRONGER UVV SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING.  

06Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE 0 DEGREE C OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NRN MI BY 15Z.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WET-BULBING WILL MAINTAIN BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI. 
ONLY FAR NWRN LWR MI WILL SEE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO
SUPPORT A SLEET MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER UVV.  MAINLY
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NW ACROSS UPPER MI.

..RACY.. 01/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43598381 43298415 43358471 43738554 44328594 44698575
45148497 45298443 44708409 

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