[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 162324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162324 
LAZ000-TXZ000-170130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162324Z - 170130Z

THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB
PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A
SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO
LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO
COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT
AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT
INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS
COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 01/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

27359694 26459780 27619847 30289648 31809578 32549410
30049324 28009610 

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