[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 15 06:15:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150615 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-151215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS 

VALID 150615Z - 151215Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR
EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE
COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO
BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN
NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE
TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING
UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION
OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN
ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.

SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME.
FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED
AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD EARLY MORNING.

..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...

38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251
40227310 38457496 

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