[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141130 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING NYC AND LONG
ISLAND...WRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141130Z - 141300Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING WITH THE 989 MB
LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH NERN PA.  MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN
EXCESS OF 100 KTS CONTINUES TO PUNCH NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WITH STRONG UVV SUPPORTING A LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN NY SWD
INTO NJ.  

GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TSTM
LINE TO EVOLVE INTO BOWS/LEWPS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN LONG-LIVED
DURING THE NIGHT.  THE STRONG SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED SEASONABLY HIGH
DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND THE
RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER SERN NY...NWRN NJ AND NWRN CT HAS BEEN
ERODING RAPIDLY.  STILL...THERE WAS LIKELY A SKIN LAYER OF STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE REGION...OWING TO RELATIVELY COOL MARINE
TRAJECTORIES.  AS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS.  RATHER... STRONGER CELLS
THAT EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED BOWS TEND TO PRODUCE STREAKS OF HIGHER
WIND/ISOLD TORNADO PROBABILITIES.  THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE AS THE STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NYC AREA...SERN NY
AND WRN CT THROUGH 14Z.

..RACY.. 01/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

39457450 41477504 42107472 42017306 41697259 40987244
40377257 40067341 

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