[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 14 02:05:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140200 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-140400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...

VALID 140200Z - 140400Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 20...AND
SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
SERN VA.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 20. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS A
PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN SC.  THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION.

A RELATIVELY UNIFORM AIRMASS EXISTS EWD TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND EXTENDS AS FAR NWD AS SERN VA ACCORDING TO SURFACE
OBS AND EVENING RAOBS. GIVEN THIS -- AND PERSISTENT EWD-PROGRESSION
OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD E AND NE OF WW 20.  THOUGH MAIN
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN WW 20 FOR SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS MOVING
RAPIDLY NEWD OVER SERN PORTION OF WW MAY APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY
OF WW 20 AROUND 04Z.

..GOSS.. 01/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

36188070 37067745 36877598 35297597 33797807 33067914
33058136 34608085 

WWWW