[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 14 00:48:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140049 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...19...

VALID 140049Z - 140215Z

CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING
ENEWD ACROSS WW 18 AND 19.

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD
ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC ATTM...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM FAR SERN GA SWD INTO NRN FL.  STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
E OF WW 18 -- WHICH EXPIRES AT 14/02Z -- AND DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS
REGION SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WW
19...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.  EVENING
JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ RAOB -- FEATURING 36 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND JUST
OVER 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THUS
EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST EXTRAP0LATION
SUGGESTS THAT FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OFF THE SERN GA COAST BY
04-05Z...AND THEREFORE -- THOUGH FRONT MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
OVER NRN FL -- MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER WW 19 BY
ITS SCHEDULED 14/06Z EXPIRATION.

..GOSS.. 01/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

33028206 33048109 33508002 32977917 31328117 29418085
28938168 29158251 29818296 31118265 31798292 

WWWW