[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 13 22:48:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132248 
FLZ000-140045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132248Z - 140045Z

A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NRN
SECTIONS OF MD AREA NEAR SRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 19. GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MODIFIED 18Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG
WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...STORMS HAVE
FORMED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN FL...PERHAPS AIDED BY
WEAK LEAD VORT LOBE. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MDT INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO
FARTHER N WITHIN WW 19...THUS TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER AS WELL. 0-1
KM SRH VALUES ARE AVERAGING 50-75 M2/S2 MLB AND AMX VWPS...WHICH IS
MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

28068183 28928167 29228095 27978019 26967981 26038012
26038070 27228131 

WWWW