[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 131615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131615 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL AND SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131615Z - 131745Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 18Z.

AS OF 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED
CONVECTIVE LINE FROM MIDDLE TN SSWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL
PNHDL. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE /COMPOSED OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/ EXTENDED FROM NEAR GZH TO SE OF MOB.  LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESOLOW ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT S OF
SEM WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO S OF TOI TO NEAR
AAF.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT IS MOIST
AND WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A NWD MOVEMENT OF
THIS WARM FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING INTO CNTRL GA THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ ACROSS THE FL
PNHDL...SRN AL AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
GA...ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

29948566 32638427 32378138 29708245 

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