[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 131120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131120 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...SWRN AL AND EXTREME WRN FL
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131120Z - 131245Z

IR SATL SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS CNTRL MS
SWWD TO THE GULF COAST EAST OF KLCH AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE SWINGS
TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE
SOMEWHAT POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY FIELDS.  STRONGER STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS
ERN LA WHERE 60-63 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXIST.  BUT...THUS
FAR THIS MORNING...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ROOTED ABOVE A NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A JACKSON MS LATITUDE.

AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LWR
MS VLY...THE ERN LA/SRN MS STORMS MAY BEGIN TO ROOT CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE.  DOWNSTREAM...THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION
INTO SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO FAVOR THIS ZONE.
AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM...AT LEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.

STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MS...LA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.  COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THOSE AREAS.  ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THE SEVERE
THREATS.

..RACY.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29629282 31239209 33618965 33668800 32848746 31328661
30128621 29048692 29508997 

WWWW