[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 13 00:34:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130035 
MOZ000-130230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130035Z - 130230Z

IT APPEARS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

RECENT IR IMAGERY FEATURES COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST OK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY
IS QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO MO /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD
MO RAOB/...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PER RUC SOUNDINGS.
THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING.

A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

37029442 37599364 38099171 37479102 36919114 36659164
36539294 36659414 

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