[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jan 12 23:25:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122326 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122326Z - 130130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET OVER ERN OK/WRN
AR...AND SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED BY 13/01Z.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING/ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
CIRCULATION CENTER OF S CENTRAL KS -- MOVING EWD INTO ERN
OK...TOWARD LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.  INCREASING UVV AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING
WITHIN THE CAPPING LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
/AROUND 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/...WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SOMEWHERE AROUND 13/02Z.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORMS COULD BE
ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THOUGH THIS
WOULD INDICATE THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AS
STORMS BECOME MORE INTENSE/WELL ESTABLISHED AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO
DRAW INFLOW AIR FROM VERY NEAR THE SURFACE.

..GOSS.. 01/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36589483 36399412 35699294 34259263 32449379 32319610
33549653 

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