[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jan 10 06:30:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100630 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-101130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN
MO

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 100630Z - 101130Z

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS INTO
NERN OK/SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SWRN
AND CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 08-11Z. A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHERE THE STRONGEST
ELEVATED WAA WILL EXIST.

LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK AS BACKING 500 MB
FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED AT LAMONT AND WICHITA...WHILE VEERING MID
LEVEL FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT VICI AND DODGE CITY. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SEVERAL SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE
SNOWFALL AT TIMES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
PRIMARY BANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS.
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR AGGREGATION IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT
ALONG WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
REGION...MODERATE TO STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-W
ORIENTED MODERATE PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN INTO
CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THIS AREA...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNU TO SGF BY 09Z. THUS A
CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA BY 09Z. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA...AN ELEVATED WARM
LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO VIH. IN THIS
REGION...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FROM 09-12Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38699216 38609421 38129595 37599749 36929830 36439861
36099823 36229728 36439629 36689539 37019348 37309182
38419114 

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