[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jan 10 00:02:12 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100001 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NE TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NWRN LA...SWRN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100001Z - 100230Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NE TX IN 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME
AND MOVE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THEREAFTER. 
MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND WILL BECOME
LESS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT PIVOTS EWD OVER OK THROUGH NEXT 4-6
HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC FORCING
ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER AREA WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS...RESULTING IN
INCREASE IN BOTH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER FLOW AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...AS WELL
AS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA E OF SFC LOW AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN DAL-TYR...WHICH WILL
SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD TXK.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER CU STREAMERS
GENERALLY E OF CRP-PRX LINE...DENOTING WRN EDGE OF RICHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.  MEANWHILE PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION
THAT IS THICKENING OVER CENTRAL TX...BETWEEN DFW METROPLEX AND JCT. 
WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS THIS PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NWRN PORTION OF AREA
NOW COVERED BY CU FIELD...IN NE TX.  AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AT LEAST
30 KT...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN AND PARCELS TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY TO
LFC...REALIZING MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  BUOYANCY SHOULD BE ROOTED
JUST ABOVE SFC S OF FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N OVER
AR.  STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
OCCASIONAL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

32269595 33469525 34519501 34489443 34399388 34169353
33389329 32529354 31389432 30989541 31269615 31999605 

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