[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 030547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030547 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-031145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN CT...MUCH OF MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 030547Z - 031145Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CT AND MUCH
OF MA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR.

MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT ORH AND IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS.  UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM MD AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT ULJ OVER 
ME.  COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW IN PROGRESS NEAR DOV WITH 4MB
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN DE IN THE 05Z SFC
ANALYSIS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE AND UL SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA BY 07Z.

AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SUB ZERO LAYER WAS OBSERVED AT
00Z IN OKX AND ALB SOUNDINGS WITH SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN
LOWEST 50MB. OBSERVED SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS VERTICAL
MOTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THREAT AREA COMBINED WITH SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

..SCHNEIDER.. 01/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...

41827261 41637340 41737364 42067368 42357346 42477314
42527275 42567233 42567178 42497139 42277117 42017129
41857212 

WWWW