[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 030321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030321 
NCZ000-SCZ000-030515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030321Z - 030515Z

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED FROM NERN SC INTO ERN NC WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE
SURFACE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID
LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 01/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

35117680 33817930 34928025 35987763 

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