[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 8 18:08:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 081808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081808 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-090015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT/EXTREME ERN ID/WY/NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 081808Z - 090015Z

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE BIG HORN MTNS. HRLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING INTO SCNTRL WY PER LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ID INTO SCNTRL
WY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
MODERATELY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL WY
THIS AFTN.

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND RIVERTON WY RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN SNOW FROM NW OF RIW TO CPR. THIS SUPPORTS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 750-650MB LAYER FORECAST BY THE ETA.
THE ETA AND GFS QPF SEEM TO DEPICT QPF THE BEST THIS AFTN...WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE BIG HORNS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
ACROSS THE TETONS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING...BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RATES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITH
ISOLD LTG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES.
IN ADDITION...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES.

..TAYLOR.. 01/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

42120862 42611201 44971319 45920715 44270539 42960450
42040562 

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