[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022120 
GAZ000-ALZ000-022245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL INTO WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022120Z - 022245Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.  A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS
DEEPENING FROM W OF ATL TO NE OF MGM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL.  LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM RMG TO W OF ATL TO S OF
MCN.  AIR MASS TO THE W OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
WITH WWD EXTENT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S FROM BHM TO MGM. 
HOWEVER...OVER FAR ERN AL INTO WRN GA...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THIS BOUNDARY /AS SAMPLED
BY FFC VWP WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS 100-200 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS MATURE PRIOR TO CROSSING
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  ONCE STORMS MOVE E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD
TEND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

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