[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 20:52:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022053 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND INTO CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...

VALID 022053Z - 022230Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 007.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z WITH MORE ISOLATED
STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KY.  

AS OF 2035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
LINE FROM N OF LAF IN NWRN IND TO SE OF BWG IN S-CNTRL KY.  STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. 

OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS JUST TO THE E OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL KY. HERE...MORE LOCALIZED FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES RECENTLY REPORTED IN HARDIN AND BULLITT
COUNTIES.  EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DIMINISH
WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR AS THESE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
OVERTAKEN BY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE.

STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS STORMS MOVE INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABILE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH
SWD INTO ERN KY.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND E
OF WW 007 IN KY AND AN ADDITIONAL...SMALL WW MAY BE NEED SOON.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

36638692 40258731 40048483 36598483 

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