[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021730 
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-021900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN/CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021730Z - 021900Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND
AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.  A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

AS OF 1720Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONGLY-FORCED
CONVECTIVE LINE FROM E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN TN WITH A GENERAL EWD
MOTION OF 20-25 KTS.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE
MS RIVER SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

BACKING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACHING OF THIS LOW
IS RESULTING IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGELY A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS MODESTLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ ACROSS
INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

36658764 39588756 39548481 36598498 

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