[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021828 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021828Z - 022000Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS SEEN IN EARLIER 12Z DAVENPORT IA AND
LINCOLN IL RAOBS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AHEAD OF STACKED LOW ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER. ADJUSTED RUC
SOUNDINGS DEPICT MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...WITH PARCELS GENERALLY
BASED AT 900 MB OR HIGHER. WHILE AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-35 KTS/
INITIALLY EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/HAIL PRODUCTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN APPROACH OF STACKED LOW. EXPERIMENTAL
SPC HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1 INCH HAILSTONES
INTO MID AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

40288670 41658684 42358609 42198414 41278378 40408395 

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