[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 17:11:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021711 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021711Z - 021845Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS OF 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM HENRY COUNTY SWD TO MADISON COUNTY IN WRN TN. 
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60F HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  LOCAL VWPS AND
PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BECOME LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL OWING TO VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  MOREOVER...OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF ANVIL LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD
AROUND MID MS VALLEY UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MS WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW STILL IN SWRN QUADRANT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER
THE ARKLATEX.  INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SWD INTO FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL.

GIVEN THE MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT
THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH WEAKENING ANVIL-LEVEL SHEAR
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

35268848 36618796 36618496 34368575 34408881 

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