[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 16:42:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021643 
FLZ000-GAZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021643Z - 021815Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 1635Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND
FROM W OF VDI TO E OF ABY TO SW OF PFN.  DESPITE SOME MIXING OUT OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AIR MASS E OF THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WW 0005
HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN
GA...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION.  CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING
AND POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.  GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON
CURRENT VWPS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS OF 45-55 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31878301 32208274 32428218 32148159 31478112 30708140
29898130 29498150 29488218 29588254 29818304 

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