[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 16:20:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021621 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...

VALID 021621Z - 021745Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #6 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN TWO TIERS OF ECNTRL/SE IL COUNTIES INTO WCNTRL INDIANA. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL
INDIANA.

LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL AT AROUND 35
KTS LATE THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CHAMPAIGN-MATTOON TO
BETWEEN SALEM/LAWRENCEVILLE AT 1615Z. RELATIVELY MOST INTENSE STORMS
WERE ONGOING ACROSS JASPER/RICHLAND/EDWARDS COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WW 6 IN WCNTRL INDIANA BY
AROUND 18Z.

COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXISTING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS/GRADUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUAL/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE-EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A
FEW TORNADOES.

..GUYER.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

40188807 40628661 39838545 38728534 38268611 38668822 

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