[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 09:00:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020901 
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN/FAR SERN MO/WRN KY/SRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...

VALID 020901Z - 021000Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 002 FROM SERN MO
INTO WRN KY THROUGH 12Z.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN MO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND THEN
ACROSS AL TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR TO NERN TX.  LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCLUDING STORMS OVER FAR NERN PART OF WW 002 AND EXTENDING FROM THE
OH VALLEY SSEWD TO SERN STATES IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF WAA
ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. 

TO THE WEST OF THIS WAA REGIME...AIR MASS IS CAPPED AS INDICATED
WITH THE 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT JAN...THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  STRONGEST FORCING ATTM AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD IL AIDING IN THE ONGOING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WW 003.  AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EWD...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SRN
EXTENT OF CURRENT MO/IL ACTIVITY SSEWD INTO NRN PART OF WW 002
TOWARD 12Z.

..PETERS.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34219108 35889096 37248973 37888894 37818680 35568728
33688827 33669027 

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