[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 10:30:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021031 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-021130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN AND SRN IL/SERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...

VALID 021031Z - 021130Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN WW 003.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD INTO CENTRAL
MO TO THE NNW OF COU...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO THE N OF
STL AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO WRN KY.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MO ALONG/E OF SURFACE
LOW AND ATTENDANT DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD INTO CENTRAL AR. 
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED STRONG
LOW-LEVEL HELICITY /0-3 KM SRH RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2/ WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN/SRN IL.  HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND SERN IA TO
THE NORTH OF WW 003.  LIMITED INSTABILITY N OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT
ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

36549113 37809157 38369240 38679274 39889238 41129289
41099129 40618925 40108840 38528767 37928807 37458945
36539025 

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