[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011936 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LA/SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011936Z - 012100Z

MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED OVER ERN LA/SRN MS -- THOUGH DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
TO BE HINDERED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION
PER LATEST WSR-88D VWPS...WHICH SHOW FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AND
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT YIELDING STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED STORM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF
BVE -- WITHIN A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE/RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
ENVIRONMENT -- IS NOW EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  THIS
STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT PER LATEST
WV IMAGERY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SRN
AL/WRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIMITED HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED/WARM ADVECTION STORMS MOVING NNEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL GA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS VORT MAX/DRY
SLOT CONTINUES EWD.  

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND ASSOCIATED LOW LCLS WOULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL ALONG WITH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO.

..GOSS.. 01/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

29338969 31238866 32168772 31708569 30508497 29578485
30258648 30038852 28828906 

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