[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 1 18:02:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011803 
SDZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 011803Z - 012230Z

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON /WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING THE
PIERRE/PHILLIP AREAS AND CHEYENNE RIVER VICINITY. HOURLY LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KS AS COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...OWING TO DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/ELEVATED THETA-E WRAPPING
N/NW INTO SD/NEB AND OVERALL PERSISTENT NATURE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT.

SIMILAR TO VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 12Z RAPID
CITY/ABERDEEN SD RAOBS...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING RAIN AS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

..GUYER.. 01/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

45690147 45430060 44839965 44199945 43759981 43610033
43560121 43760267 45350287 

WWWW